Idea Brunch #2 with Ameya Shinde of Multiples Capital Management
Welcome to Sunday’s Idea Brunch! We are thrilled to check back in with Ameya Shinde, founder and portfolio manager of Multiples Capital Management LLC. Since we last spoke in late 2024, Multiples Capital has continued its impressive run, navigating a complex 2025 to deliver significant outperformance. From July 1, 2022, through the end of 2025, the firm has achieved a net annualized return of approximately 25.7%, compared to 18.4% for the S&P 500. Ameya was previously featured on Idea Brunch in November 2024.
Ameya, it is great to have you back. 2025 was a strong year for Multiples Capital with a 35.6% absolute return. Can you share more about your “Opportunistic Multi-Asset Strategy” and how it performed so well?
It’s great to be back. 2025 was certainly a defining year, but for me, the most rewarding part wasn’t just the 35.6% absolute return, it was how it was achieved. The hallmark of the performance was generating high-quality, risk-adjusted alpha without leaning on the crowded ‘Magnificent 7’ trade. In fact, while the headlines stayed focused on those tech titans, the reality was that five of them actually trailed the S&P 500 last year.
The multi-asset approach allowed me to look where most weren’t. I found significant alpha in the precious metals complex, driven by global de-dollarization trend, and in industrial metals, which acted as a derivative play on the massive electricity demands from the AI data centers ongoing boom. I also moved into global defense plays as US is looking to pull out from its role as the global police, as well overlooked sectors like shipping, which thrived on geopolitical volatility.
By diversifying into these macro themes and attractive ex-US market valuations, I was able to offer my investor partners a much ‘smoother ride.’ We ended the year with a monthly standard deviation of just 2.49%, about half the turbulence of the S&P 500, resulting in a Sharpe Ratio of 3.15.
In our November 2024 interview, you pitched Garrett Motion as a top idea. Since then, the stock is up ~170%! What went right with Garrett Motion, and where do you think the stock goes from here?
I appreciate you bringing up Garrett Motion (NASDAQ: GTX — $3.87 billion). While the ~170% gain is a highlight, I think it’s only fair to mention that my other pick, MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM — $9.43 billion), has remained relatively range-bound. However, the success of Garrett has more than compensated for that.
What went right was a ‘perfect storm’ of three catalysts that was anticipated: index inclusion, fundamental resilience, and aggressive capital allocation. The narrative shifted in Q2 when GTX joined the Russell 2000, which provided the institutional liquidity a business of this quality deserved. Operationally, the ‘EV-only’ fear proved premature. We’re seeing a ‘long tail’ for internal combustion, specifically through turbocharged hybrids and Range Extended Electric Vehicles (REEVs) in the US and China.
Management also put on a masterclass in shareholder yield, reducing the share count by 43% over three years. However, investors should note the profile has changed. A year ago, this was a deep-value play at a 20% free cash flow yield; today, after this meteoric run, that yield has normalized to around 9%. While I expect the company to continue performing well operationally, it no longer offers the same combination of a ‘coiled spring’ valuation + near term catalyst that made it a top idea last year.
In your Q3 2025 investor letter you called out several SAAS companies as “AI Losers” well before the recent stock collapses in software companies. Do you still hold this view? What is the market not pricing in regarding AI, and do you see any opportunity?
I believe the market began sniffing out the existential threat AI poses to traditional SaaS models back in 2025, and that trend has only accelerated. I think it is a loser’s game to try and pick winners in a space where competitive moats are being fundamentally rewritten.
However, the market is likely misapplying those same AI fears to non-software businesses, such as in logistics, insurance, and travel. I see AI as a net tailwind and a productivity tool in these other sectors.
Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE — $26.4 billion) is a prime example of this mispricing. It is currently down 33% YTD and trading at a remarkably attractive 12%+ free cash flow yield. Meanwhile the company is growing top-line revenue at high single digits, earnings at a double digits rate and continues to use over 60% of that free cash flow to aggressively buy back its own stock.
The view that Expedia is a simple ‘online aggregator’ vulnerable to AI search is a fundamental misunderstanding of its model. Expedia is more of a platform. It not only provides a significant distribution channel for hotels but also acts as the ‘merchant of record’ by managing the entire transaction lifecycle from payments to customer service. This is a complex operation that is not as easily replicable as writing new code. There is a reason why Expedia and Booking holdings effectively operate as a duopoly.
Expedia’s real crown jewel, however, is its Business to Business (B2B) segment, which effectively serves as the ‘back-end’ for the global travel ecosystem. The company provides the inventory and technology for thousands of partners, including airlines, financial institutions, and offline travel agents. This segment now accounts for 37% of total revenue and grew 24% in Q4 2025, marking 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Today Expedia’s white-label services power Marriott’s vacation packages portal and AmEx’s Corporate and Leisure bookings platform to name a few.
Expedia has also proven to be remarkably recession-resistant. During the Great Financial Crisis, while hotel revenues plummeted, Expedia’s revenue actually grew by 14% over 2009-10 period. Hotels become more reliant on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) in an economic downturn and increase their marketing spend on these platforms to fight for a larger share of a shrinking pie.
Following a multi-year tech stack unification, I see Expedia leveraging AI to drive internal efficiencies. The company is using the technology to improve developer productivity and customer service resolution.
The market is giving us a high-quality, cash-generative business at a deep discount due to generalized AI anxiety. In my view, AI is more likely to replace Google search’s current function in helping travelers reach hotels listed on Expedia rather than replace Expedia’s position as the essential plumbing of the travel industry.